What this shows

Tradio scores each paragraph of a Fed speech against that speaker's own past speeches: a hawk sounding dovish is news, a dove sounding dovish isn't. It then replays real Kalshi and Polymarket prices around the moment the text was released to see which markets reacted, how fast, and which were too thin to judge.

Each market is a yes/no bet on the Fed's decision. The % is the market's chance it happens, like on Kalshi; a 22% chance trades as a 22¢ contract that pays $1 if it does.

The ● LIVE tab shows a speech as it happens, or a past one replayed as practice. Playbook lists the trading rules learned from past speeches, and the Desk panel under the chart shows what those rules traded or would have traded. Trades default to Kalshi's demo exchange (fake money). Model shows a predictor trained on past speeches and how well it scores; each market's “chance to react” is what it said before the release.

How to use it

1. Pick an event at the top.
2. Press ▶ Play (or space), or drag the timeline. Jump to release (key 0) skips to one minute after release, and the ← and → keys step one minute. Hover the clock for seconds and UTC.
3. Click any market in the list to put it on the chart. See the data opens the raw rows behind its numbers.
4. The page keeps to plain language. Any ⓘ button opens the numbers behind it: the scores for a passage, the timings behind a verdict, the desk's orders, or the chart key.

What the verdicts mean